The Atmospheric Cliff

"2012 storm season ranks among busiest"
"Warming permafrost needs attention now, scientists say"
"Are of Arctic sea ice larger than U.S. melted this year"

These three headlines clustered on pages 3 and 4 of my newspaper this morning. The fiscal cliff didn't come up until page 5. Perhaps we have been worrying about the wrong cliff.

The first story noted that we had 19 named storms in 2012, although only one that got up to category 3. If I understand the physics correctly that is exactly what we should expect from global warming. The intensity of a storm is determined by the difference in temperature between between two colliding fronts. The frequency of storms is determined by the average warmth of the atmosphere. Global warming is increasing the average temperature but may actually be narrowing the differences in temperature.

The story about melting sea ice noted that it is causing a rapid rise in sea levels. That reminded me of recent stories in the newspaper about the increasing frequency of damage to beaches and roads on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Land on the Outer Banks costs an arm and a leg but how much is it worth if it is under water or can only be accessed by boat? My daughter, who works for the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance in USAID and whose current assignment includes the Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean, has told me that at the current rate of sea rise the entire country will be under water by the end of this century. I think that qualifies as a disaster.

The problem with melting permafrost is that it releases large amounts--gigatons--of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane. It creates a vicious circle of atmospheric warming. More gases produce more melting which produces more gases. How soon will we resemble the planet Venus?

My short term solution is to sell my land on the Outer Banks and in the Maldives and invest the money in farm land on Greenland and shore property on Hudson Bay in northern Canada. My long term solution is to die before the end of this century.